Will You Quit?

There are many approaches, methodologies, and schools of thought on how to conduct due diligence in startup investing. The earlier the company, the less that can actually be known. With so much unknown and to be determined, getting at the motivation and tenacity of the founders is essential. That frames the essence of the bet both founders and investors are going to take.

Of course I like a good financial model (never seen one that doesn’t scale up rapidly) or total addressable market (TAM) slide (never seen one that says the market is small). I more lean into what does it look like when the company is at $1M, $5M, and $10M in revenue, the cost structure to support that, how fast can they get there, and what does the market to get there look like from a bottom’s up perspective. Things like how many companies of your perceived ideal customer profile exist and how will you reach and convert them on positive economics. I did a post about all that back in 2021 “What We Ask In Due Diligence” that you can read.

In the meantime, let’s focus on the most important question (to me) an early stage investor needs to get an answer to during due diligence. 

What would it take for you to quit?

At this point in my wandering career I have made over 70 early stage investments as both an angel investor and venture capitalist. I have had the privilege of watching many of them play out over the years with all the twists and turns along the way.

Sometimes (often) startups don’t work out as desired. There can still be success but there are many degrees of that and, in some cases, it merely means finishing well and winding down in an orderly manner. That is part of the equation as well and how you finish matters more than how you start be that with great success or total failure.  You have to finish the drill completely if for no one else than yourself so you have lived the experience, have a story to tell and finish with your reputation intact.  

Anyone doing early stage investing should know the risks including a total loss of capital. If they don’t understand that then you as a founder should think twice about taking their money.

So back to the question – “what would it take for you to quit?”  To me, at the earliest of stages of investing this is the number one risk for an investor. For my fund, we are not structured or equipped to step in and run the company should the founder or founders walk away. The founders are the soul of a startup and essential in its creation and early growth.

So, what insight led to asking this question you might ask?  

A post-mortem discussion on an investment we made where the team, literally, quit to take jobs with a big techco. What did we miss?  For starters, we didn’t ask them this question, together, as a founding team.  

Now that we do ask it I get all sorts of answers from “Never!” to “Not til the IPO baby!” to “Hmm, I hadn’t thought about that.”  Most times that question has never been asked of a founder or founding team and it is fascinating to hear the answers especially among founders that have not had that discussion prior.

One of the more memorable answers and might very well be the best one went something like this: “Well, if we try what we think will work and it doesn’t and try all the other things we think will work and they don’t then maybe it would be time to see if this was actually still worth spending the time and energy doing.”  An honest and informed response. 

Startups are hard. Being a founder is hard. The journey is a series of big advances and enormous setbacks and getting at how founders are considering that journey out of the gate is essential and, to me, the most important thing to understand in due diligence.

Startup metrics and other nuggets of wisdom from Steve Blank

I have professed my admiration for Steve Blank numerous times on this blog and continue to give a copy of The Four Steps to the Epiphany to everyone who joins my team as well as make use of many pieces of his customer development methodology.  

Video embed doesn't seem to work so here is the link to it.

This is a great video of Steve's presentation at the recent Startup Lessons Learned Conference in San Francisco.  It is about 40 minutes of your time but is a nicely done breakout of the differences among a startup, a venture-backed startup, and a large company including they measures of success and right people at various stages.
Lots of good nuggets in here but really liked the description of startup metrics:

  1. Customer acquisition cost
  2. Viral coefficient
  3. Customer lifetime value
  4. Average selling price/order size
  5. Monthly burn rate

The discussion around GM's history is also well done painting a picture between entrepreneurs and operating management.  Here are the slides as well:

Hands vs. Mind

I had a nice chat this week with someone I had met in the past and with whom I recently reconnected.  We talked about a wide range of topics related to technology, marketing, and the types of work we do.  I did not explicitly ask if I could reference him so in the spirit of "journalistic integrity" I will not but will definitely update the post when I get the green light.

One of the more interesting parts of our discussion was about doing "hands" work vs. "mind" work.  Although it would be easy to separate this as tactics vs. strategy that is not so much the case.  It is about being in the weeds to get something done like writing copy and delivering pitches to prospects, analysts, or journalists vs. spending cycles on what needs to be said, how to position the company, and who to target as a customer or influential all the while tracking performance and making tweaks.

The challenge, at least in a startup, is to focus on getting things done (hands) no matter what it is while keeping an eye on it through a strategic framework (mind).  Although it is a bit of cliche, I never ask anyone on my team to do something that I haven't already done myself or wouldn't be willing to do.  There is no time or cycles to spend on someone who deems tasks below them – this is radioactive in a startup so if you see it, address it immediately.

Given the speed, resource constraints, and workload in a startup, it is a definite challenge to balance these two types of work so think it about it as hands vs. mind and be sure to make time for both.

Marketing and advertising will not save you

I have been fortunate to get to know the guys at the Foundry Group over the past year as they led the Series A investment in Gist.  They are a good group and being a bit of a Boulder, CO fan boy myself, I have definitely enjoyed getting to know the team there.

This past November, I really enjoyed dining with Jason Mendelson of Foundry (and a few others) ahead of the Defrag conference in Denver.   

Jason recently did a presentation for the University of Colorado New Venture Challenge on "How to Build a Company" and I thought I would share it here (slides below).  Here is a link to the summary of it on the University of Colorado New Venture Challenge site and there is also a link to video of his presentation on the same site.

Lots of great stuff in here including this point that I definitely agree with:

"Marketing and advertising will not save you: Every marketing guy
knows that half of his budget is wasted; he just doesn’t know which
half.”