Career choices of MBAs as negative indicators

Picked this up today citing a recent survey of MBAs where 1 out of 4 ranked Google their #1 target for a job.  Unfortunately, this may not be good news for the company.

There has been some research into how the career choices of MBA grads (Harvard in this case) are strong negative indicators for the stock market.  The logic being that by the time the horde has its sites on the big dough of Wall Street, the up cycle and good times have just about run their course.  Recent data was eerily predictive of the recent decline, volatility, and layoffs there.

Here is an interesting article from way back in 1994 on this.  Here's the HBS career stats if you care to do your own analysis.  The fella that came up with this is a former Brown Brothers Harriman exec named Ray Soifer. Check out his site and the "2007 Harvard MBA Stock Indicator."  Here's an article from the NY Sun on him.  Dealbreaker has covered it a couple times as well – here and here.

Think this applies outside of Wall Street?  Maybe the "free food" variable will counter this force…

Happy thoughts on the US economy

Picked this uplifting nugget up via RealClearPolitics citing an article that appeared in the UK’s Telegraph on the state of the US economy and how the US consumer is handling it.

US consumers are juggling plastic to put off their day
of reckoning. The Fed survey said credit card debt had jumped 6.7pc in
the first quarter to $957bn, or $6,000 per working American, despite
usury rates near 20pc.

Now, how much of this is worst case scenario versus the true state of affairs is yet to be seen.  I believe we still have a bit of nastiness to work through before things improve in earnest.  But, when everybody is finally talking about how bad it is, isn’t that when it is actually getting better?

Hiatus

Apologies for the shortage of new posts.  Have been busy with some travel, a great visit from my parents, and in a general writing rut. Back on-line and will resume posting shortly.

This caught my attention today

Via a post on Silicon Alley Insider regarding Google’s paid-click growth via analysis by Mark Mahaney of Citi quoting Comscore stats (got all that?).  Here’s the link but this is the statement regarding potential causes that got my attention:

"A macroeconomic dampening of commercial queries by searchers"

Welcome to new economic indicators.  If people are buying less, they are searching less, and they are clicking on ads less.  Internet search activity as spending indicator.