Author: Robert Pease

No instant replay in election of US President

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After being bombarded with all sorts of official and unofficial 'news' about the race to be the next President of the United States this evening as I sifted through my RSS feeds, a few things occurred to me. 

1. Each candidate (and their surrogates) has their version of events, why they are better, why the other one is worse, and the way forward for America.  I subscribe to both candidates' blogs (Obama & McCain) and suggest you do as well if you have a tolerance for spin and marketing (an election is, after all, a marketing campaign).  Also tap into Politico for some perspective.

2. Much like when a close (or not so close) play happens in a football game and all the fans both at home and in the stands see it through their team preference, the same is happening and will happen this election.  One person's down by contact is another person's fumble.

3. In the closing weeks of this election, the rhetoric and nastiness will intensify.  After all, this is a pretty significant job and the winner commands a great deal of power.  The good news is that the Obama campaign will probably single handily stave off a recession in the advertising market as they put their cash hoard to work.

In a football game, the fans boo and then go back to watching the game convinced they saw it better than the guys on the field and the review team in the replay booth – but the final call is the final call.  In this election, there will definitely be some booing by the defeated team and, unfortunately, we have no replay booth. 

Just a Constitution, a process, and our optimism (I hope) as a country.  I think this is closer than the "polls" indicate and we need to be prepared for that reality as a country.  Surveys, polls, and numbers are suspect things but are useful tools in a marketing campaign (see point #1 above).  If you read one, consider the source, look at the sample, and use it as one of many data points over time.  I still remember the 2000 election and seeing the aforementioned pieces actually work (in a bar in Boston believe it or not) as well as the US population getting an eduction on what the electoral college was all about.  One side won and one side lost, but the process works.

Get a grip

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Many of the blogs I read and other sources of information I tap on a daily basis have been consumed with the "tough love" coming from several established venture capital firms like Sequoia and Benchmark.  I'm not going to rehash it here as it has been beaten to death at this point.  I am, however, going to weigh in on the fact that the message is not new but rather overdue. 

Here's a few hard truths that apply to start-up/early stage companies no matter what the broader economy looks like:

  1. If you don't have a business model, you don't have a business.  If this is the first time this has occurred to you, you were going to fail (or get fired) anyway.
  2. Cash is the most cherished resource you have especially when you are not self-supported (by your own revenue).  How you burn it should be governed by looking at every dollar you spend as your last.
  3. If you are old school enough to have an actual business model, the projections you have made with regard to uptake/revenue/adoption will take twice as long and equal half what you think.  And that is in a positive economic environment.
  4. An entrepreneur I admire once told me that someone has to look at your product and decide to take money out of their pocket and hand it to you because they think it is worth buying.  If this hasn't occurred to you or you haven't visualized how this would happen, see point #1 above.

We do have a few shreds of capitalism left here in the US and this is one – not
all companies succeed.  Quite frankly, venture-backed companies are
even riskier as you are betting on a market that may or may not materialize or has
materialized and there are now loads of competitors vying to dominate
it.

Regardless of the stage of company where you work, your job is always on the bubble (that's for you Dad).  That does not mean that you are teetering on the fire list every day but it does mean that a job is not an entitlement, it is an opportunity.  If you squander that opportunity, you will no longer have a job.  Losing that job can be based on your own performance, management performance, or macro-economic factors beyond your control.  Maybe not fair, but reality.

Basic business principles endure and always rule the day whether you are running 30x leverage in a hedge fund or building the next "it" product or service.  Brad Feld has some good thoughts on his blog including this post.  I am also embedding the much ballyhooed Sequoia Capital presentation below:

Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturnhttp://static.slideshare.net/swf/ssplayer2.swf?doc=sequoia-1223625495238287-9&stripped_title=sequoia-capital-on-startups-and-the-economic-downturn-presentation

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: depression recession)

Art with Heart

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I was fortunate enough to start my morning with several hundred other folks at the Sheraton in downtown Seattle at the Color of Hope breakfast in support of Art with Heart.  Good friend and Gist CEO TA McCann introduced me to this organization and I must say I am very impressed.

Their mission is to "empower youth in crisis through therapeutic books and programs that foster self-expression."  It's about using art to help kids through difficult times and the program was really well done.  Check out the site to learn more and get involved.

Dawg Dash this morning

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I did my part to try to help the Huskies salvage a miserable football season by participating in the Dawg Dash 10K on the University of Washington campus this morning.  This was the 23rd year for the race but my first time.

It was great to hang out on the field before and after the race.  Results aren't up yet, but my Timex Ironman watch showed me an unofficial 50ish minute finish time.  Not too shabby given my desire to take it a bit easy today (no athletic vendetta at play today).

Some calm and clear perspective on the current economic turmoil

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I have been a fan of Charles Schwab & Co. for many years and use many of their financial products and services.  I thought this was a worthwhile bit of content to share and it is available on the public portion of their site. 

Their point of view – doomsday fears are overblown.

Have you stopped to think a moment about all the writers, analysts, pundits, journalists, etc. who so liberally use the word "depression" these days with such apparent expertise are the same ones who said nothing leading up to the current gyrations?  They don't know any more than you or I (and in some cases less) and are chasing ratings/subscribers/viewers.  The more dire the diagnosis, the more you tune in.  Take it with a grain of salt.

Read the whole thing from Schwab as it does a nice job comparing and contrasting where we were then vs. where we are now and calls out the following points as reasons to believe:

1.  'Jobless recovery' (from previous decline period means fewer reductions this time around)
2.  Fiscal policy (government focused on stimulus)
3.  Globalization (no protectionist mindset)
4.  The FDIC (it exists this time around)
5.  Money supply (Fed adding liquidity this time around)
6.  Housing near bottom (not there yet but falling less)
7.  Emergency Economic Stabilization Act (US Treasury steps in as a buyer)

No doubt, this is going to continue to be ugly for a while and the new sport of calling the bottom of the market decline needs to be replaced by nausea and vomiting before we really get there.  My view is positive in the long-term based on belief in the US and US economy.  I can't think any other way. 

Google jumps the shark

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I like to poke a bit of fun at the Google gang here as it comes with the territory when you become the dominant player in so many things.  That said, I use lots of Google services from email to RSS to finance and would even (don't tell them) consider paying for it at some point should that buy me out of their ad driven world.  A topic for another day…

The point of this post is as follows: 

Google stock is experiencing what most stocks are experiencing these days – a steep decline.  Combine that with the fact that they are an "aging" technology company now at the grand old age of ten and the stage is set. 

Seeing this ridiculous feature now available for Gmail convinced me that they had indeed jumped the shark.  It's not April so it can't be a joke unless they paid to have the date moved.  Do some math before you send a late night email you might regret.  For real?

To me it looks like too many people working on too many things that just don't matter which led to this example of software development run amok.  My guess is that cuts are coming to more than just the free food budget and I hope that all that work to build out Googleplex North up the street from me here in Kirkland works out.  Otherwise there is some mighty nice new office space going to be available in short order.

Showing its age and aspirations, Google promotes Gartner MQ placement

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I was perusing the various RSS feeds I work to scan everyday and this one from the Google enterprise blog caught my attention.  It is about Google being recognized as a "leader" by Gartner in their recent Email Security Boundary Magic Quadrant.  This is the product line from the Postini acquisition.

It struck me as a true sign of vying to be an established enterprise technology player when you tout recognition as a market leader by an analyst firm like Gartner Group.  Ten years into its life, Google shows us that it is not immune from having to play by the rules of the enterprise technology landscape. 

Update on the Seattle metro economy

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We spent today running a few errands and happened to drop into REI in Redmond during their big sale.  We are shopping for dual strollers as we await the newest member of our family to join us and needed to go kick the tires on a few models.  Yes, that is where I am in my life and, yes, I am ok with it.

Judging by the cars in the parking lot, people in the store buying necessary "gear," and overall level of shopping going on, there is no visible slowdown out here among what David Brooks so accurately labels as 'Bobos' (read Bobos in Paradise for full explanation).  Guess I have guilt by association.

We wrapped our day at Red Robin which is a wonderful combination of family friendly, good burgers, and sports bar atmosphere.  Something for everyone and a fitting end to our outing.